Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Sierra Leone Findings

2014
The authors combine data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2013 with other datasets to estimate the global burden of HIV, tuberculosis and malaria. They find that progress has been made but these three diseases still pose a huge global health challenge. Data for Sierra Leone is also provided.

BackgroundThis study used data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2013, as well as other data sources. See here for more about the methods and global estimates.Evidence for Action contributed to this research.Key findings from Sierra LeoneThe figures below are given alongside their 95% uncertainty intervals in brackets, that is, the range with which we can say with 95% confidence that the true number lies between the range. Figures are rounded to the nearest ten.HIV:

  • In 2013, there were an estimated total of 4,300 (1,620 – 8,690) new or incident cases. Around 52% of these were among women.
  • The rate of change in incidence from 1990 - 2000 was estimated to be close to 21% but the incidence was estimated to have reduced over the period 2000-2013 to 5.3%.
  • In 2013, 4,070 (2,500 – 6,570) deaths due to HIV were estimated; almost half of these were among women.
  • The rate of change in mortality is estimated to have decreased from 24.4% over 1990-2000 to just 9.1% over 2000-2013.

Tuberculosis (without HIV):

  • In 2013, there were an estimated total of 20,500 (19,200 – 21,770) new or incident cases. Around 30% of these were among women.
  • The rate of change in incidence from 1990 - 2000 was estimated at 0.99% remaining relatively constant over the period 2000-2013 at 1.09%.
  • In 2013, 1,990 (1,520 – 2,580) deaths due to TB were estimated; almost half of these were among women.
  • The rate of change in mortality due to TB is estimated to have decreased from 1.7% over 1990-2000 to -2.2% over 2000-2013.

Malaria:

  • In 2013, there were an estimated total of 1.2 million (190.7 – 1.9 million) new or incident cases. Around 57% of these were among females.
    • The rate of change in incidence from 1990 - 2000 was estimated to have reduced from the period 1990 – 2000 from 0.58% down to -5.9% for the period 2000-2013.
    • In 2013, 8,880 (5,690 – 12,670) deaths due to malaria were estimated; more than half (54%) of these were among females.
    • The rate of change in mortality due to malaria is estimated to have decreased from 1.1% over 1990-2000 to -2-5.9% over 2000-2013.

ConclusionsThe authors conclude that substantial progress has occurred in fighting HIV, tuberculosis and malaria as the result of global action. However, HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria remain major health challenges in 2013. The authors also emphasise that they are not critiquing the estimates presented by organisations such as UNAIDS and WHO, merely presenting an alternate set of estimates based on a different statistical approach.You can access the article in full, alongside regional and country-specific estimates by clicking here.Murray, C. J. L., Ortblad, K. F., Guinovart, C., Lim, S. S., Wolock, T. M., Roberts, D. A. … Vos, T. (2014). Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. [Sierra Leone Profile] The Lancet, 384(9947), 1005-1070.

Murray, C.J.L., Ortblad, K.F., Guinovart, C., Lim, S.S., Wolock, T.M., Roberts, D.A. … Vos, T. (2014). Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. [Sierra Leone Findings]The Lancet, 384(9947), 1005-1070.

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